Happy January! We’ve done it, we’ve survived the first full work week of 2026 🥳 As the new year is well and truly here, we thought what better way to start the year strong than with a recap on how the US trucking industry in 2025 treated us. Stick around as we delve specifically into Q1 and Q2 in this blog and then cover Q3 and Q4 in the next. Including what happened over the first half of the year, how it affected the US trucking industry and other logistics modes.

It was a bumpy start to the year for many reasons to say the least, with lots of challenges. But, we won’t spoilt too much, there is a LOT to get through, so let’s not waste any time and get straight into the nitty gritty, here is broken down month by month, the first two quarters of 2025.

🗓 January

Wildfires

The year started with the US trucking industry focusing on stability and operational discipline, but, not without early challenges. January saw, catastrophic wildfires burn across Southern California throughout January 2025 devastatingly taking lives, livelihoods, homes and entire communities. In terms of logistics, most major logistics hubs in the affected areas avoided direct damage, but the fires caused large-scale power outages, road closures, local evacuations and air quality restrictions. The impacts to wider national logistics world were not crippling from these fires, but they did heavily disrupt regional trucking operations and highlighted to the world the vulnerability of supply chains at the hands of climate related events. One year on, and our hearts still go out to those affected, those who lost their lives and their families and friends. ❤️‍🩹

Labor Strikes 🚫

There was also a near crisis that was thankfully averted in January, 25. Supply chains braced for an extremely difficult time, with port worker strikes on the horizon. This level of strike if it went ahead would have been catastrophic as it would have shut down East and Gulf Coast ports and caused severe disruptions across global supply chains. Thankfully, this was narrowly avoided, the strike was due to commence on January 15th, but both the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) came to an agreement on January 8th for wage increases, and other job benefits, calling off the strikes and providing stability to supply chains once again, allowing continuous operation and avoiding severe economic fallout. These strikes wouldn’t have only affected ports, disruptions would have rippled across other modes of transportation, as less imported and exported products means less domestic transport need too.

Tariffs 🚦

Freight forwarders were rushed off their feet through January, many businesses were front loading imports into the US to build inventory ahead of new tariffs and duties that Trump’s administration brought in, to be effective from February 4th. This included the 10% tariff on all China-origin goods. All of which, had a knock on effect to trucking too, once the goods were in the country, many needed that next step of domestic distribution and storage, filling warehouses and depending heavily on truckload movement. It was a busy January across the board! This give you a sense of just how damaging the above strikes would have been, if the strike went ahead there would have been little to no staff to handle the surge of imported and exported freight at the ports, it would have been a disaster!

De Minimis Rule Talks 🗣

The de minimis rule making was a hot topic in January too, with proposals of restricting products subject to specific trade actions, ones under certain sections and tariffs from qualifying for the de minimis low value shipment exemption, which at that point stood for any shipment under the value of $800 bypassing duties and taxes. The new de minimis rule would have brought extra delays, costs and complexity across supply chains to an already fragile January. However, changes in this came later in the year.

Martin Luther King Jr. Day 🗓

A federal holiday here in the states is Martin Luther King Day, which is the third Monday of every January. But holidays make moving freight more difficult, from hiked up prices, struggles to secure capacity with less trucks on the road and delays in the actual movement of the goods are all factors to consider when shipping goods around this time.

🗓 February

Tariffs 🚦

February 2025 was again met with challenges for the logistics industry as it faced major disruptions once again from escalating tariffs (Trump introduced 25% on a variety of imports including vehicles, pharmaceuticals and electronic components), trade tensions, and retaliatory threats especially on auto and tech imports which drastically impacted shipping demand.

Again, we saw front loading before the tariffs hit and then a steep decline straight after they came into effect. These rapid shifts in demand kept everyone on their toes.

Now, these tariffs didn’t only affect demand through February for trucking companies, but also had an affect on any fleets looking to buy new trucks and repairing older ones due to the tariffs on steel, aluminium and other components, driving the cost up potentially by $35,000 for a new class 8 truck!

European Labor Strikes 🚫

Labor strikes at French ports: Saint-Nazaire and Nantes also caused widespread shipping delays, schedule disruptions and congestion which significantly impacted US logistics. Transatlantic routes required many vessels to be rerouted and arrival times were extended on US bound consumer goods. Which in turn had a knock on effect to the US trucking industry. Vessels that were arriving late in the US created a backlog at ports, which added a ton of pressure to trucking companies to distribute goods quickly, whether they were going to warehouses, logistics hubs or final destinations.

Cost & Complexity Increase 💵

These first few months of the year set the tone for the rest of 2025 in terms of increased complexity when moving goods internationally and nationally. From constantly changing tariffs, labor strikes and stricter customs enforcement came an extremely volatile market, which in turn drove up operational costs and increased complexities in the day to day for shippers and freight providers alike.

President’s Day 🗓

Another federal holiday that lands on the third Monday but this time of every February is President’s Day. Again creating a three day weekend, causing delays to freight movement, lower capacity and higher rates. These federal holidays should always be taken into consideration when planning shipping schedules.

🗓 March

Trucking Dominance 🚚

March, 2025 was a big month, especially in the world of trucking. According to data from the Bureau of Transportation Trucks alone moved $94.2 billion of freight which was a 9.5% increase year over year, $67.5 billion with Canada and $77.3 billion with Mexico. This could have been the result of near-shoring and market uncertainty, making businesses react and creating an initial surge to move their goods into America before April, where more tariffs could come into action.

March also marked a record all time high in dollar value cross-border freight moved by multiple modes of transport. But perhaps these figures were artificially inflated from shippers front loading before tariffs worsened.

More & More Tariffs 🚦

From March 4th, all imports from Mexico and Canada were subjected to 25% tariffs and the original 10% tariffs imposed on China had at this point doubled to 20% also. But container imports were up 11% from March 2024, however spot rates from the Far East to the US declined, indicating a New Year demand slow down and softening market.

Q1 💭

All of these events, pressures and factors made the first quarter of 2025 highly volatile. It turned a prolonged slow market quickly into an inflationary rate environment, which was driven by a surge in demand due to tariff scares rather than actual economic recovery. Trade fears created a freight binge in the first three months of the year, however most feared a nasty hangover on the horizon, which we now know, they unfortunately wouldn’t be wrong about. Let’s take a look at Q2!

🗓 April

“Liberation Day” 🚦

More of Trump’s tariffs came into effect on April 9th, including a 10% base rate globally and 145% on many goods from China. These changes in tariffs caused significant cost increases and triggered trade war fears across the globe. Late March and early April saw an influx in shipments to beat these, but latter April is when we saw the effects hit the US with bookings plummeting. Many businesses adopted the “let’s wait and see what happens” approach, however this was not an option for some, and they were left paying extremely high rates.

Bankruptcies Across Trucking Companies 📃

As you can imagine, the above rates were not sustainable and negatively impacted everyone, but in terms of domestic freight there was a short boom of work from front loading once again and then a sharp decline in volume immediately after the rush as the new tariffs set in, some analysts reported as much as a 13% decline in trans-border freight from March. The “great freight recession” continued through the later half of April, with once again reduced demand, lower freight rates and higher operational costs, making it incredibly difficult for smaller carriers to maintain positive margins. Many industry experts feared the market was at “crisis” point and unfortunately this turbulent market in April lead to many trucking companies unfortunately facing bankruptcies and therefore business closures. It is documented that almost 7500 carriers exited the market during this month.

English Proficiency Standards Order Signed By Trump ✍️

It didn’t stop there, and the changes kept coming for the trucking industry this month. On April 28th an order was signed by President Trump to enforce English proficiency standards for commercial drivers license (CDL) holders. Which braced everyone in the trucking world as this was bound to significantly impact driver capacity, and to make matters worse the trucking industry were already struggling with driver shortages. One saving grace here is that this was not to be in effect until June 25th, so the drivers and businesses that would be affected had time to seek options and prepare.

So, once again tariffs and regulatory changes took the centre stage this month, and April marked a significant and disruptive shift in US freight from new tariffs causing short-term chaos, pricing hikes and strategic pauses across global supply chains.

🗓 May

90 Day Tariff Pause ⏸

May 12th was a breakthrough day for America and China. The United States and the People’s Republic of China announced a temporary 90 day agreement to roll back some of the reciprocal tariffs increased back in April, this pause was to become effective from May 14th, with larger tariffs to be reinstated on July 9th if no formal trade agreements were met.

This pause, was a huge relief for many, but it did trigger a demand amplification effect across supply chains, as businesses were only guaranteed 90 days of much lesser tariffs, who knew what would happen after this period, causing a sudden rush of goods into US ports, to build inventory while they could. The sudden surge coming off the back of severe slowdowns caused increased freight demand, nationally and internationally, port congestion, reduced capacity and higher spot rates as shippers scrambled for space. The way logistics companies handled this ever changing market, showed their ability to adapt to a wildly changing trade landscape. The sudden uptick in work made capacity tight again, and many carriers had to lean heavily into offering expedited services just to try and accommodate as many customers as possible before the potential reinstatement of higher tariffs.

Memorial Day Weekend 🗓

Moving freight around a national holiday is always difficult. Especially because memorial day fell on Monday, May 25th creating a long three day weekend lull. Some carriers will pick up freight on the Friday before and sit on the freight until the following Tuesday, creating quite significant delays. Not only that but holidays also drive up prices, many businesses close, workers take time off to spend with their loved ones, all of which also makes securing capacity difficult.

Produce Season In Southern & Western US 🍊

Produce season creates a surge year on year, especially across Reefer trucks (refrigerated). May is the height of produce season for the Southern states, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and across some Western states too, like California and Arizona which can draw capacity away from the Northern states and create higher rates. Reefer trucks are needed to keep the integrity of the produce, when transporting perishables like watermelons, citrus, tomatoes, corn, greens and berries, etc. a reefer truck is a non-negotiable.

🗓 June

Shifting Production Out Of China 🧑‍🏭

June marked a shift for many businesses in the way that a ton of them moved the production of their materials and products to other countries. With the deadline of the tariff pause looming, many businesses looked to move production of goods closer to home, or just simply out of China to mitigate paying inflated tariffs if they were to come back into play. Many companies shifted their business to Southeast Asia or India, although these countries then faced their own tariff risks by July. After shifting production else where, businesses could continue to import and export without the crazy price tag, meaning all logistics demand shifted once again to become more steady.

Rising Fuel Costs ⛽️

Another factor logistics companies and shippers had to contend with during June was rising fuel costs, driven by Israel – Iran tensions, especially following a conflict which escalated around June 13th. Crude oil climbed to around $75-$80 per barrel, compared to $64 in late May. This sharp spike negatively affected the Shipper Conditions Index, marking June a tough month for shippers and carriers alike and ultimately once again raising costs.

English Proficiency Standard Came Into Action 🗣

From the order signed back in April, the English proficiency testing roadside for CDL (commercial driving license) holders, came into effect on June 25th. Since then, at the time of writing this blog in January 2026, almost 10,000 commercial truck drivers have been taken off our roads. Simply because they did not pass roadside evaluations in being proficient enough in English to read highway signs, electronic message boards, communicate clearly with inspectors in English and have all required documentation to hand and be able to discuss it clearly. Failing any of these steps results in the driver being immediately dismissed with an out-of-service status which prevents them from continuing their trip.

This has had a large impact on the trucking industry not only because there is already a serious driver shortage, so making the available driver pool even smaller. But also because when a driver is dismissed immediately, it leaves truckloads abandoned road side, until another driver can take over and fulfil the trip, causing significant delays.

Juneteenth 🗓

Another federal holiday that happens each year on June 19th is Juneteenth. In 2025 June 19th fell on a Thursday, therefore there was minimal impact on the freight and in particular trucking industry, as it did not create a three day lull like other holidays this year.

Q2 💭

Q2 was a rollercoaster of shifting demands, tariff changes and consistent uncertainty. The tariffs continued to drive short term decision making and also surges in volume from front loading followed quickly by sharp slowdowns. Coupling all of this with Q2’s rising fuel costs, produce season, federal holidays, and shifting regulations the US faced an environment where carriers, shippers and all other logistics professional in between experienced whiplash conditions. Q2 really highlighted just how fragile and reactive the freight market still remained.

2025 Q1 & Q2 Round Up 💭

The persistent freight recession that began in 2022, did in fact hang around for the most part of 2025, leaving carriers with excessive capacity, keeping spot rates low and pressured margins. However, some of this was disguised by the multiple upticks in demand from the tariff changes. As you can see highlighted in Q1 and Q2, the first two quarters of 2025 were tough and presented significant challenges across the US trucking industry and other logistics modes.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom, this half of the year forced our industry to adapt, and that’s not a bad thing, many worked on better cost control, disciplined capacity management and had a strong focus on operational efficiency. And yes, while we were entering Q3 with lingering challenges, at least the groundworks were laid in Q1 and Q2 to deal with these ever changing volatile markets in the months ahead.

Stay tuned with our blogs because in the next one we’re going to go in depth with a review of how Q3 and Q4 panned out in 2025 and then we will follow on with our predictions for 2026, and how the freight industry landscape might change.

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