Autonomous trucking has been a hot topic in the U.S. for some time now. We’ve seen pipe dreams in the form of the deployment of more autonomous vehicles by the early 2020s be crushed due to various reasons, but one leading factor was the slowdown caused by COVID-19. Then, through 2021-2023, we actually saw a large continuation of advancement in autonomous vehicle technology. Although this was very promising, the scope of challenges around autonomous vehicles still remains huge, as through 2024 the autonomous vehicle industry saw a serious lack of sufficient capital to support further technological development.

Are things about to change though? Parent companies of autonomous vehicle startups have announced serious investment plans recently, and Aurora is even planning to have autonomous trucks on Texan roads by April 2025! With even bigger, and more ambitious plans to team up with other major companies like NVIDIA and Continental to go to mass manufacturing in 2027.

Anything could happen between now and then that might put a roadblock in the way in terms of regulatory hurdles. However, the latest advances cannot be ignored and have left us wondering…what is the future of autonomous trucking in the U.S.? Let’s imagine a world where autonomous trucks populate our highways and project some of the advantages and disadvantages we’d expect to come from an autonomous trucking landscape.

The Upsides of Autonomous Trucks 👍

The world of long-haul truck transportation is a prime example of an industry that would directly benefit from autonomous vehicles, including their shippers Here’s how:

24/7 Operations, Cost Reductions & Efficiency

Utilizing autonomous trucks for long-haul shipping means that drivers can focus on shorter, closer-to-home routes, improving their work-life balance and optimizing their working hours. This will increase efficiency with the ability to offer 24/7 operations while potentially lowering labor costs due to eliminating the need for breaks on long-haul jobs. We would also see more efficient delivery speeds through the use of real-time data analysis to re-route and cut down transit times, therefore, effectively reducing shipping costs. McKinsey estimates that with full autonomy operating costs could be slashed by a whopping 45%, in turn saving U.S. shippers a HUGE $85-$125 billion.

Driver Shortage Solution

We’ve been experiencing a driver shortage in the U.S. for a number of years now which we fear will only get worse. The American Trucking Association (ATA) expected by the end of 2024 that we would be short of 82,000 available truck drivers. There are several factors adding to the shortage with the main being the average driver age rising to 46 years old, meaning most are nearing or have already hit retirement age and the industry simply struggling to attract new talent. Again the ATA calculates that 1.2 million new drivers will need to be hired through the next decade to account for the ageing workforce. But with the implementation of autonomous trucks, we’d expect this to be a potential solution and help to minimize delays of shipments.

Improved Safety

Autonomous trucks are equipped with advanced sensors and AI technology. With these comes an increased level of safety on the roads, as these technologies mean that autonomous trucks can “speak” with one another about things like, lane changes, braking intentions, upcoming obstacles and  traffic updates. Through this communication trucks can effectively react quickly to potential dangers. Another way we will see improved safety, is by eliminating human error, drivers tend to make errors whether they’ve been driving for a long stint, or they become tired, which statistics show leads to thousands of accidents each year. These can be eliminated leading to safer conditions, less human injuries and fewer disruptions, meaning timely deliveries and cost savings through less damages and insurance claims.

The Drawbacks to Consider 👎

Concerns For Truck Drivers Jobs

As technology matures, and we see a mass roll out of autonomous trucks, drivers are concerned that more and more of their jobs will be replaced with autonomous solutions. This could lead to drivers seeking alternative employment prematurely, adding to the driver shortage and causing delays.

Insurance Complications

In the long run, once autonomous trucks have been on the road for a period of time and the technology has matured enough to have proven their safety on the roads and built up a trust, insurance costs will most likely stabilize. However, in the short term we expect higher insurance rates which will increase shipping costs.

Public Perception & Trust

Building up trust in autonomous technology is tricky but very essential. As the shipper you will need to be transparent with your customers and partners and address any concerns they might have regarding the reliability and safety of these kinds of trucks. Some people will be of the mindset that the human touch is necessary when it comes to driving and delivering goods.

What Does The Future Hold? 🔮

The above scenarios are projections for a future that we are uncertain if we will even see in our lifetime. In all honesty, we don’t know when or if these trucks will actually ever take over our roads. Market leading autonomous vehicle manufacturers are still working hard on the technology and alongside this legal regulations around autonomous trucks still need to be fully determined. So we’re still a way off them becoming a common sight on our highways.

But, the question still remains, is autonomous trucking the future of U.S. transportation? It’s clear that the technology holds significant promise, but widespread implementation won’t happen overnight. Concerns over technology, regulation and public perception need to be ironed out before autonomous trucks can become a mainstream solution in the U.S. transportation industry.

In the meantime, we’re happy to stick with what works. Hands-on human effort. At PEI, we pride ourselves on providing personal service with a human touch. Every shipment is dealt with by our expert team who work hard to ensure your goods arrive safely and on time. There’s not quite a substitute for that personal touch!

 

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